The Modern Observer Group

There are many ways to improve your decision making, but two simple rules can be particularly helpful. First, be less certain — about every part of your decision-making process. Think choice A will lead to outcome B? It’s probably less likely than you believe. Think outcome B is preferable to outcome C? You’re probably too confident about that as well. Revisit the logic of your decisions. What else would you think about if you were less sure that A causes B, or that B is preferable to C? Second, always ask yourself, “How often does that typically happen?” For example, if you were considering funding a startup, you might ask: What percentage of startups fail? (Or, what percentage succeed?) Accepting that you know less than you think you do is one of the best ways to start making better decisions.